Spring Budget 2021: When is it, and what will Rishi Sunak say?

This takes the Chancellor into medium-term goals: stimulating growth after lockdown ends, while restoring the public finances.

Paul Johnson at the Institute for Fiscal Studies suggests phasing out furlough and business support in line with restrictions, so industries such as nightclubs and air travel are helped for longer.

At the same time he sees hiring and training incentives as key for generating new jobs, while a green investment package could help get spending going.

Beyond that, the Chancellor needs to think long term, with consultations on the way the state works.

Covid has wrought dramatic changes on the economy, some of which will be permanent, and some of which exposed underlying failures in the way the Government raises and spends money.

Major reforms

Kevin Hollinrake, a Conservative MP, wants the Chancellor to look at sweeping reforms, including a new model of social care potentially with auto enrolment into an insurance scheme; replacing business rates with higher VAT to put physical and online retail on a level playing field; and establishing regional mutual non-profit banks to fund businesses.

“Typically budgets in the past have tinkered at the edges without any strategic framework, but the reality is that we have some huge spending challenges, even before the Covid crisis, so we have to do things which actually move the dial,” he says.